Most companies that participate in public procurement have a limited bid team and a limited budget. Bidding on everything is not a strategy — it is a recipe for poor tenders and burn-out. A structured bid/no-bid decision determines where you invest your energy and where you consciously pass. The companies that win the most are not those that bid the most — they are those that select the smartest.

Why bid/no-bid?

Every tender costs time, money and attention. A tender for a mid-sized public contract easily requires 40 to 200 hours of work — from analysing the specifications to the final review. If you invest that effort in a contract where you have little chance of winning, it comes at the expense of contracts where you could actually score.

A deliberate bid/no-bid discipline:

Increases your win rate by only bidding on promising contracts.
Prevents overload of the bid team.
Improves the quality of every tender you do submit.
Gives management clear visibility on the pipeline.

The bid/no-bid framework

Step 1: Initial screening (go/no-go)

Within 24 hours of discovering a contract, you carry out an initial screening. These are knock-out criteria — if the answer is “no” to any of these questions, you stop here.

Does the contract match our core activity? Bidding on something outside your expertise rarely leads to success.
Do we meet the selection requirements? Check turnover, references, certifications, contractor registration. If you do not qualify, it is pointless.
Can we execute it? Do you have the capacity (people, resources, planning) to deliver the contract if you win?
Is the timing feasible? Do you have sufficient time to submit a quality tender?

Step 2: Strategic assessment (scoring matrix)

If the initial screening is positive, a deeper analysis follows. Score each factor on a scale of 1-5:

Win probability (weight: 30%)

Do we know the contracting authority and its needs?
Have we successfully worked with this authority before?
How strong is our position relative to known competitors?
Do we have unique strengths (technology, team, references)?

Strategic value (weight: 25%)

Does this contract fit our long-term strategy?
Does it open doors to a new market or client?
Does it strengthen our reference portfolio?

Financial attractiveness (weight: 25%)

Is the expected margin acceptable?
What about payment terms and cash flow risk?
Are there hidden costs (surety bond, insurance, travel costs)?

Feasibility (weight: 20%)

Do we have the right people available?
Is the planning realistic?
What execution risks exist?

Decision rule: A weighted total score above 3.5 is a “bid”. Between 2.5 and 3.5 is a “conditional bid” (extra attention needed). Below 2.5 is a “no-bid”.

Step 3: Formal decision and communication

The bid/no-bid decision is recorded and communicated to the team. In the case of a “bid”, tender planning starts immediately. In the case of a “no-bid”, the reason is documented — this is valuable information for future decisions.

The red flags

Certain signals strongly argue for a no-bid:

The specifications appear to be tailor-made for a specific competitor. The technical specifications refer to brand names, the selection requirements exactly match the profile of one company.
The deadline is unrealistically short and the publication appears to have been deliberately delayed.
The contract is a re-tender of a previous contract where the incumbent has a significant advantage.
The price is fixed and you can only distinguish yourself on quality where you have no clear advantage.
You have no relationship whatsoever with the contracting authority and it is a procedure without negotiation.

Tailor-made specifications (brand-specific requirements, selection criteria matching one company exactly) are red flags and potential grounds for appeal. Before deciding to bid, ask: is this procurement fair or did the authority pre-select a winner? If biased, the procurement may be suspended by the Council of State — but you still invested in a losing bid.

The green flags

Signals that argue in favour of a bid:

You have been invited by the contracting authority or have already had contact through a market consultation.
You have strong references that exactly match the required experience.
The award criteria emphasise quality and innovation — precisely where your added value lies.
You know the team you can deploy and they have proven expertise.
The contract fits in your strategic pipeline and strengthens your market position.

Documentation and learning

Keep a register of all bid/no-bid decisions and their outcome. After the award — whether you won or lost — you evaluate:

Was the decision to bid correct?
Was the estimate of win probability realistic?
Which factors did we over- or underestimate?

This feedback loop makes your bid/no-bid framework increasingly sharp.

Request a debriefing from the authority after every bid, win or lose. This feedback is gold — it shows you how evaluators scored you, where you lost points, and how you rank versus competitors. Use this to refine your bid/no-bid criteria and scoring matrix. Winners improve bid/no-bid discipline continuously.

Sources

Shipley Associates — Gestión de capturas y propuestas
APMP (Asociación de Profesionales de Gestión de Propuestas) — Marco de decisión de licitar/no licitar